Why BTC Isn't Taking Off (And Why That's Normal)

Last month we made a post saying that V-shaped recoveries are very rare in the market.

Whenever a market or an asset comes out of a proper bear market, it usually spends some time in a range. You can call it building a base, accumulation, consolidation, whatever you want. Let's just talk about BTC.

01The Structure Shift Isn't a Launchpad

Bitcoin had almost a 10-month bear market. Now BTC has come out of that bear market and shifted its structure.

And you might remember we said that a structure shift does NOT mean price is just going to take off from there. A structure shift simply means the trend has changed.

If you look at BTC's past cycles, whenever BTC shifted its structure, it spent a good amount of time in a range. We saw it in 2019. We saw it again in 2023.

And this is usually the phase where people start getting frustrated.

"Why is BTC not going up?"

02Look at What BTC Has Already Done

BTC went from around $58K to almost $87K–$88K. That's already roughly a 50% move.

So if you are buying now expecting BTC to just continue straight up from here, just understand that you are late.

BTC is probably going to spend some time around these levels. Maybe slightly lower, maybe slightly higher. It could take a few weeks.

03Where People Make Mistakes

This is where people start making mistakes.

They take a position, get bored, exit. Take another position, get frustrated, exit again. Some will eventually sell everything because "BTC is not doing anything."

But this is a normal phase. It has happened with BTC before and it can happen again. Just because BTC has shifted its structure doesn't mean this phase disappears.

04No V-Shaped Recovery Into ATH

We don't expect a V-shaped recovery straight into all-time highs.

If BTC was already in a normal bullish trend and this was just a regular pullback, then yes, we would say BTC could go directly to ATH from here. It can still happen.

But BTC has just come out of a proper bear market. That's why we expect BTC to spend some time here.

It will tease you. It will test your patience.

05What To Do If You're Not In Yet

If you are not in the market, this is the time to slowly DCA into different price zones and prepare yourself for the next few months. Not the next few days.

Because the shorter your timeframe is, and the more you expect from the market in a short period of time, the harder it becomes to make money.

We don't think the market is going anywhere anytime soon. This is the phase where your patience will be tested.